The upcoming referendum of southern Sudan on self determination, which will take place on January 9, 2011, is considered by all standards as a historic day in the modern history of the Sudan, taking into account that it will determine the future of the country for the first time in the entire history of the Sudanese state, the geographically largest country in Africa and the Arab world and tenth largest in the world by area., after which it will either remain unified or split into two separate countries.
The referendum of South Sudan was provided for by the Comprehensive Peace Agreement (CPA) signed in Naivasha, Kenya in 2005 between the Government of the Sudan and the Sudan People's Liberation Movement (SPLM) (a southern rebel movement at that time) to end a two-decade civil war, whereas voters will decide on independence or to remain united with the north.
Nowadays after expiry of time and the arrival of the scheduled date of referendum there is now nothing to be done because the time for action is over.
All we can do is to await the set date with the hope that final decision will be in favour of unity of Sudan. But if the majority of the people of the south opted for separation, let it be so, but that separation should be organized, based on rules that guarantee props of life for the new state and distinctive neighbourly relations based on coordination and cooperation to serve common interests.
The joint interests between North and South
The basic problem lies in arriving at the right formula for establishing bilateral relations that guarantee peace and co-existence and prevent the return to war that may lead to armed confrontations and may affect not only Sudan but the whole region.
Therefore we think that the referendum now is the most important issue that must be focused on and resolved by good and proper preparations of voters registration to be held in an atmosphere of freedom, integrity and full transparency under the international, regional and local observation to pressure the two ruling parties in Sudan, the National Congress Party (NCP) and the (SPLM) on implementing the CPA to achieve positive consequences.
It is gradually becoming apparent that the joint interests between North and South impose on the two ruling parties (NCP) and (SPLM) the shift from "confrontation" to "cooperation" since they both failed in making the unity option attractive.
If we take oil as an instance, we will find that it is the mainstay of life in the South and has great importance for the North since in the absence of oil there will be no independent state in the South as that region has continued to live on outcome of production in the North for over a century and did not have adequate financial resources for running a state before the advent of oil and finalization of the production, marketing and export of oil.
The South's utilization of its oil revenues is totally associated with the North because processing, refining and export of oil will take place via the North for years to come under the possibility that it may be exported via East Africa in a few years time after finalization of the pipeline for that region. But the economic feasibility of the latter proposition is doubtful as compared to oil reserve of the South.
The South is in dire need for cooperation with the North in respect of oil if it breaks away and wishes to establish a state capable of surviving. The North also has interest in continued oil production in the North and the passage of that oil via its terrain to Port Sudan. As long as the two parties have major interest in that, they have to establish bases of cooperation and coordination between them.
The two parties also have interest in establishing the bases of cooperation in respect of movement of people and the follow of commodities and animals. There are thousands of southerners who now live, possess real estates and residences and receive education opportunities and health services in the North. That need will remain outstanding for years to come until the South has managed to develop its institutions and resources and create job opportunities.
The North is correspondingly in need for the freedom of movement for millions of northern herders who move into the South in pursuit of pasture and water in the drought season. When southerners go to the ballot boxes in the 9th of January 2011 there will be millions of these people and millions of heads of cattle present in southern territory and will remain there until the beginning of May 2011 along the borderline extending from Ethiopia up to Sudan's borders with the Central African Republic.
If the flow of movement ceases in that region, those tribes will lose their entire wealth. The two parties will thus find out that there is no alternative for agreement on the freedom of movement and residence for millions of citizens of both sides.
There is also commercial trade as all the areas extending along Bahr-al-Ghazal and the Upper Nile states are totally dependent on commodities that arrive from the North because it is closer to them. Any attempt to establish commercial trade in these remote areas with East Africa will be impractical and costly since the river transport line with the North can meet the needs of those regions if is rehabilitated. There is also the railway that links Wau (southern city) with Port Sudan (northern city).
If the southern state is established, it will be a 'closed-in' state with no outlet to the seas except through Port Sudan or Mombassa in Kenya, though Port Sudan would be more economically feasible . And that confirms the important of cooperation between the south and north whatever the outcome of the referendum unity or separation.
Ayman Ibrahim - Ayman Elias Ibrahim has wide-ranging experience in both Arabic and English Journalism. He is a generalist who is interested in, and writes ...
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